![]() ![]() (Your calibration skill in one domain will carry over partially, but not completely, to other domains. A couple of hours of practice is all it takes for most people to become very well calibrated- at least within a single domain, like trivia questions. Happily, calibration is a skill with a quick learning curve. For example, if there were 10 questions for which you said you were 55 percent sure of your answer, and you got 6 of those questions right, then your total percentage right at this confidence level would be 6 / 10 = 60 percent. ![]() Next, go through only the questions about which you were “55% sure” and calculate the percentage of those questions you actually got right. Check the answer key to find out which you got right and which you got wrong. Once you’ve finished, or answered as many questions as you want to, it’s time to score yourself. The atoms in a solid are more densely packed than the atoms in a gas. Jupiter is the largest planet in our solar system. Seasons are caused by the earth orbiting the sun in an elliptical path. The deepest place on Earth is in the Pacific Ocean. One tablespoon of oil has more calories than one tablespoon of butter. Scurvy is caused by a deficit of vitamin C. Round 4: Are these science facts true or false?ģ1. Round 3: Which country had more people in 2019? Round 2: Which historical figure was born first? A mule is a cross between a male donkey and a female horse. The platypus is the only mammal that lays eggs. Flamingos are pink because they eat shrimp. Centipedes have more legs than any other animal. Sea otters sometimes hold hands while they sleep. About the author (2021) Julia Galef is the host of the popular Rationally Speaking podcast, where she has interviewed thinkers such as Tyler Cowen, Sean Carroll, Phil Tetlock, and Neil deGrasse. The elephant is the world’s largest mammal. Calibration practice questions (answers here) Round 1: Are these animal facts true or false?ġ. Remember, the goal isn’t to know as much as possible. Others may prompt you to throw up your hands and say, “I have no idea!” That’s perfectly fine. Some questions might feel easy, and you’ll be near certain of the answer. Just circle the one that best represents how sure you are.Īs you go through the list, you should notice your level of certainty fluctuating. Since these questions have only two possible answers, your confidence level could range from 50 percent if you truly have no clue (i.e., you might as well be guessing the outcome of a coin flip) to 100 percent if you think there is no chance you could be wrong.įor the sake of simplicity, I’ve listed five confidence levels between those extremes: 55%, 65%, 75%, 85%, and 95%. You don’t need to answer all of them, but the more you answer, the more informative your results will be.įor each question, circle an answer and then indicate how sure you are by circling a confidence level. If you’d like to test your own calibration, I’ve put together a set of forty trivia questions for you to practice on. Still, it’s a useful benchmark against which to compare yourself. Perfect calibration is an abstract ideal, not something that’s possible to achieve in reality. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world-which anyone can learn.In Chapter Six of The Scout Mindset, I discuss the skill of calibration: having the appropriate amount of confidence in your beliefs.īeing perfectly calibrated would mean that your “50% sure” claims are in fact correct 50 percent of the time, your “60% sure” claims are correct 60 percent of the time, your “70% sure” claims are correct 70 percent of the time, and so on. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. ![]() Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. But if we want to get things right more often, argues Galef, we should train ourselves to have a "scout" mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe-and shoot down those we don't. The Scout Mindset 4,864 ratings Open Preview De verkennersmindset 1. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a "soldier" mindset. 81 quotes from Julia Galef: Discovering you were wrong is an update, not a failure, and your worldview is a living document meant to be revised., The best description of motivated reasoning I’ve ever seen comes from psychologist Tom Gilovich. "When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. ![]()
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